F1: Surprise at the Spanish GP? Madring may reduce Mercedes’ advantage

F1: Surprise at the Spanish GP? Madring may reduce Mercedes' advantage

Unprecedented circuit debuts on the Formula 1 calendar at a time when McLaren tries to confirm growth, Ferrari seeks answers, and Audi aims again for the top 10 with Gabriel Bortoleto

Read more F1: Ex-Ferrari engineer sees Leclerc under ‘psychological pressure’ for racing with Hamilton

Formula 1 enters completely unknown territory this weekend. The Spanish GP marks the debut of Madring on the calendar and, even before the first practice sessions in Madrid, the new circuit already presents an important question for the 2026 season’s power struggle: will one of the main advantages built by Mercedes throughout the championship carry the same weight on this track?

F1: Surprise at the Spanish GP? Madring may reduce Mercedes' advantage
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The German team remains the major reference of the year and Kimi Antonelli leads the World Championship, but the last rounds showed that the superiority of the package does not manifest the same way on all types of circuits. One of Mercedes’ strengths lies precisely in the efficiency of the energy recovery and management system, allowing the car to quickly recharge the battery and better use electric power throughout the lap.

This differential was decisive at different moments of the season, especially on tracks where energy recovery and its subsequent use in accelerations and long full-throttle periods carry greater weight. However, Hungaroring and Zandvoort showed a different configuration of forces.

And there is an important coincidence: on both occasions, Lando Norris won.

F1: Surprise at the Spanish GP? Madring may reduce Mercedes' advantage
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It is precisely this recent history that places McLaren as one of the main teams to watch when the cars finally hit the track in Madrid.

Mercedes is still the reference, but Madrid raises a question

Madring will have 5.4 kilometers and 22 corners, combining quite different characteristics throughout the lap. There are high-speed sections, medium-speed corners, slower zones, and a sequence of 90-degree turns that will demand good traction on exits.

The main attraction is turn 12, named La Monumental. The banked and quite long section should represent one of the biggest challenges for drivers, tires, and cars throughout the weekend.

Since it is a completely new circuit, there is no real basis for comparison. Simulations help teams arrive in Madrid with an initial setup, but only FP1 will start to reveal how tires, asphalt, aerodynamics, and power unit will really interact.

That is where the first big question of the weekend appears.

Mercedes has been able to make very good use of the characteristics of the new power unit regulations. Its ability to recover, store, and deliver electric energy has become one of the 2026 car’s weapons. Depending on the track configuration, however, the size of this benefit may vary.

This became more evident recently.

In Hungary, Mercedes could not impose the same superiority seen in other rounds. Norris put McLaren on pole position and later won the race. Antonelli still managed to reach the podium, but the German team did not control the weekend.

In Zandvoort, the situation was a bit different. Mercedes and McLaren were again among the main forces, but Norris prevailed again. The Briton won for the second consecutive race, while George Russell and Antonelli completed the podium.

Madrid, therefore, represents an interesting opportunity to find out if there really is a pattern.

If Madring’s characteristics again reduce the weight of Mercedes’ energy differential, other virtues of the cars may gain importance — and McLaren showed in the last two rounds that it is ready to take advantage of this scenario.

McLaren arrives with reasons to believe

It would be premature to point to Norris or McLaren as favorites even before the first practice on a circuit no one knows. But it would also be hard to ignore the team’s momentum.

Victories in Hungary and the Netherlands were achieved on very different tracks, something particularly relevant. This suggests that McLaren’s recent evolution may not be limited to a specific condition.

The car has shown good behavior in corners, stability in direction changes, and the ability to manage tires. These characteristics can be especially useful in Madrid.

The initially low amount of rubber on the asphalt also tends to produce a constantly evolving track during Friday. Getting the tires quickly into the correct operating window can be worth several tenths, especially at the start of the weekend.

For Norris, the Spanish GP also represents the opportunity to turn two consecutive wins into a more significant trend. If McLaren appears again fighting for pole and victory, the second half of the championship scenario begins to gain a new variable.

Ferrari arrives in Madrid as an unknown

If Mercedes and McLaren provide some recent references, Ferrari arrives at the new circuit surrounded by more questions.

The Italian team has shown speed throughout the season and Lewis Hamilton has already won in Barcelona, but Hungary and the Netherlands showed that Ferrari has not yet managed to turn every weekend into a direct fight for victory.

At Hungaroring, Hamilton was only 0.012 seconds from the pole position claimed by Norris, while Charles Leclerc also appeared very close in qualifying. The race pace, however, did not allow Ferrari to turn that speed into a win.

In Zandvoort, there was competitiveness again, but McLaren and Mercedes were ahead.

The scenario becomes even more interesting after the work Ferrari has done in recent rounds, including the changes and updates seen in Monza and the evolution related to the power unit package.

Read more F1: Alonso guides Toleman and Senna’s McLaren before the GP in Madrid

The question is how much of this progress can be transferred to a track with such different characteristics.

Madrid will therefore be an important test. If Hamilton and Leclerc are close from FP1, it will be another indication that Ferrari has expanded the car’s operating window. Otherwise, it may become clearer that part of the recent performance was related to the specific characteristics of the circuits.

Circuit atmosphere - track detail.

La Monumental can reveal a lot about the cars

If there is one point on Madring that will probably be watched closely from the first laps, it is La Monumental.

The long banked corner should impose high loads on the tires and require aerodynamic stability during a relatively prolonged period. Small differences in controlling the car’s platform can become quite visible in that section.

It will also be interesting to see which drivers can carry more speed and which cars allow different trajectories.

On a new track, this gains even more importance because teams do not have years of telemetry to consult. Each lap of FP1 will produce information that would normally already be available even before the start of a conventional weekend.

Engineers will have to learn quickly. And the drivers too.

Tires will be another important variable

The new asphalt is another element capable of mixing up the forces.

A surface still little used usually presents lower grip and significant evolution as cars complete laps and deposit rubber. This may mean that Madring seen at the start of FP1 is quite different from that found in qualifying.

Tire management will also be important.

If graining or difficulty putting the compounds in the correct temperature appears, teams that normally manage this process better may find an advantage that did not necessarily appear in simulations.

That is why the long runs of FP1 and especially FP2 will carry special weight. More than simply observing the timing sheets, it will be necessary to understand how each car produces its laps and how the pace behaves after several passes.

Audi and Bortoleto have an interesting opportunity

Further back, there is another team that deserves special attention this weekend.

Audi has shown clear signs of evolution during the season and arrives in Madrid trying to turn this progress into a more consistent presence among the top ten. For Gabriel Bortoleto, the Spanish circuit also offers an interesting opportunity after what the team showed precisely on the two tracks that serve as recent reference.

In Hungary, Nico Hülkenberg managed to put Audi in the top 10 in qualifying and finished the race ninth. Bortoleto advanced to Q2, started 14th, and was close to the points zone by finishing 11th.

In the Netherlands, the Brazilian took another important step in qualifying. Bortoleto put Audi ninth on the grid, while Hülkenberg started 13th. In the race, however, it was the German who managed to make better use of the opportunities and crossed the line eighth, while Bortoleto finished 13th.

These two weekends leave an interesting reading for Madrid.

Audi has already shown it can put the car in the fight for Q3 and points on circuits where Mercedes did not exert the same dominance seen in other rounds. The challenge now is to combine qualifying and race in the same weekend.

Madring’s characteristics should put to the test precisely some important areas of the project: low-speed traction, stability in medium corners, tire behavior, and power unit efficiency.

For Bortoleto, the first parameter will again be Hülkenberg. If the Brazilian can repeat the qualifying competitiveness shown in Zandvoort and Audi confirms a good race pace, the top 10 becomes a possible target again.

A weekend to discover the true order

Perhaps the most interesting characteristic of the first GP at Madring is precisely the absence of answers.

Mercedes arrives as the season’s reference, but did not win the two races used as the most recent benchmark. McLaren arrives strengthened by two consecutive wins by Norris. Ferrari has speed but still needs to show it can use it consistently. Red Bull will also have to quickly find out where its car fits on the new circuit, while Audi tries to definitively bring Bortoleto and Hülkenberg closer to the points zone.

All this will be placed before a track without history, with new asphalt and a corner that promises to be one of the most particular sections of the entire season.

The first laps this Friday, therefore, will be worth more than simply opening another Formula 1 weekend.

FP1 will begin to answer whether Madrid maintains the order established throughout 2026 or if Madring has precisely the characteristics capable of producing a new shift in forces.

And, after Norris’ wins in Hungary and the Netherlands, one of the first questions is already posed: will Mercedes’ advantage remain smaller and again open the door for McLaren?

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