Temperatures above 55°C were recorded on the Spa asphalt during the 24 Hours held at the end of June. If the heat repeats itself at the Belgian GP, the increase in thermal degradation may favor two-stop strategies.
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When talking about the Belgian GP, rain usually dominates any discussion about the weather. The Ardennes microclimate, the rapid changes in track conditions, and the possibility of different sectors presenting different levels of humidity are part of Spa-Francorchamps’ identity.
In 2026, however, Pirelli is watching another variable closely: heat.
During the 24 Hours of Spa, held at the end of June, the asphalt temperature exceeded 55°C. If similar values are recorded during the Formula 1 weekend, tire behavior could have a direct impact on race strategy.
The expectation is that the increase in thermal wear will make a two-stop race more likely.
For the Belgian round, Pirelli selected the C2 as Hard, the C3 as Medium, and the C4 as Soft. Spa is among the most demanding circuits on the calendar in terms of loads and forces applied to the tires, although it does not reach the levels recorded at tracks like Suzuka and Silverstone.
The combination of these demands and high temperatures can completely change the race reading.
C2 and C3 should lead the strategies
Regardless of the number of stops, the expectation is that the two hardest compounds available for the weekend will be the protagonists on Sunday.
The C2 and C3 offer a greater margin for long stints and should allow teams to work with different strategic windows. The C4, in turn, may appear in specific situations, mainly depending on track temperature and starting position.
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The main factor will be thermal degradation.
Long corners and the forces applied to the tires generate heat. If the asphalt is also very hot, controlling this energy becomes essential to avoid a sharp drop in performance over the stint.
In this scenario, insisting on a one-stop strategy may mean managing the pace more conservatively. Two stops, on the other hand, allow using tires in better condition for longer but add the cost of an additional pit stop. The choice will depend on data collected during practice.
Spa can show two completely different races
The unpredictability of the weather makes the analysis even more interesting.
If temperatures remain high, thermal wear may push teams towards two stops. If the weather changes and the asphalt cools, the strategy may again favor longer stints.
And there is, naturally, the possibility of rain.
In 2025, wet conditions delayed the start by more than an hour and completely transformed the strategy. When the race finally started, everyone was using intermediate tires. The switch to slicks happened from lap 11, and only six drivers made a second stop afterward.
The contrast shows how Spa can change personality quickly.
The same track that can require two stops because of the heat can also turn the race into an exercise in survival and reading weather conditions.
Therefore, more than defining a strategy before the start, teams will need to build different scenarios for Sunday.
Rain remains the image most associated with the Belgian GP. But in 2026, perhaps it will be the heat that forces strategists to work even harder.
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