Formula 1 will have a 2026 Canadian GP surrounded by strategic uncertainties this Sunday in Montreal. Besides the battle between Mercedes, McLaren, Ferrari, and Max Verstappen, the forecast of heavy rain promises to completely shuffle the teams’ plans at the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve.
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George Russell arrives boosted after winning the Sprint and securing pole position, while Kimi Antonelli starts alongside him. Mercedes showed strength with its new update package, but the long race will demand much more than pure speed to maintain the lead under pressure from McLarens and Ferraris.
If the rain does not appear, simulations indicate that the fastest strategy should be one stop, using Medium tires and then Hard tires, with the ideal window between laps 21 and 27. Recent history favors this scenario, as the four races held in the 2026 season were won with only one pit stop.
Another possibility involves the use of Soft tires. Sergio Pérez showed in the Sprint that the C5 compound can work well in Montreal by gaining positions quickly after starting 16th. Cadillac believes that a Soft>Hard strategy can be competitive, especially if the race starts on a wet track or with rain forecast during the event.
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But the big factor on Sunday should be the weather. The forecast points to temperatures between 11 and 12 degrees Celsius, constant rain, and strong wind, a scenario that even worries Pirelli. Chief engineer Simone Berra described the combination as “the perfect storm” for the tires, since Montreal has few fast corners capable of generating temperature in the compounds.
Lando Norris summed up the expected challenge for the race: “I think it could be an insanely complicated race. It’s already difficult to get temperature into the Soft tires, imagine with ten degrees less and using intermediates or extreme wet tires.”
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