The strategy could decide the Formula 1 Hungarian GP this Sunday. Although two stops appear as the fastest option in simulations, the difference to a single stop is small, opening space for different decisions among the teams.
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The fastest plan is to start with Medium tires, put on Hards between laps 16 and 22, and repeat the compound between laps 40 and 46. McLaren, Ferrari, Red Bull, and Mercedes preserved two sets of Hards, but none of them used the compound in practice, which adds uncertainty about its behavior in race conditions.
The one-stop alternative, with Mediums and Hards, foresees the change between laps 26 and 32. “In this case, one and two stops are truly equivalent,” stated Dario Marrafuschi, Pirelli’s motorsport director. The scenario allows teams with two close cars to adopt split strategies, especially after the penalties that altered the order at the front of the grid.
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Another possibility is to start with Softs to take advantage of the greater grip at the start. The Softs, Hards, and Mediums sequence indicates stops between laps 13 and 19, then between 45 and 51. Lewis Hamilton has a new set of Softs available after Ferrari used Mediums in Q1, while Racing Bulls, Audi, and Aston Martin also arrive at the race with a greater quantity of the fastest compound.
Heat could be more important than rain. The forecast indicates around 32°C in the air and up to 56°C on the asphalt, a condition that tends to increase rear tire wear. The estimated loss in a pit stop under green flag is approximately 21 seconds, while an intervention during a Safety Car or VSC would significantly reduce this cost and could completely change the choices during the 70 laps.
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