Liam Lawson will have to raise his performance in the second half of the 2026 Formula 1 season if he wants to continue in the category in 2027. The New Zealander managed to keep his spot for this season, but the current results put his future in doubt again.
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An analysis by GPblog points out that Lawson is in a particularly delicate situation within the Red Bull structure. Although he has an advantage over rookie Arvid Lindblad in 2026, the margin is too small for a driver who already has four years of experience in the category.
Recent history also weighs against Lawson. In his confrontations with Yuki Tsunoda, the New Zealander lost 10 to 1 in qualifying and finished behind in points, 8 to 6. Then, in his two races for Red Bull Racing in 2025, he was outqualified and outraced by Max Verstappen in both events, and scored no points against 30 points from his teammate in the same period.
Back at Racing Bulls, Lawson also trailed Isack Hadjar, 6 to 16 in qualifying, 7 to 15 in races, and 38 to 50 in points. In 2026, however, the scenario partially changed: Lawson leads the duel against Lindblad 6 to 5 in qualifying and 7 to 3 in races, while scoring 36 points against 22 from the rookie. The average difference of only 0.040 seconds in qualifying sessions, however, is considered small given the experience accumulated by the New Zealander.
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Furthermore, Red Bull already has another young driver pushing for an opportunity. Nikola Tsolov leads Formula 2 in his debut season, after finishing second in Formula 3 in 2025, and Alan Permane stated that he is ‘in line’ to reach F1: “When that will happen, I honestly don’t know,” added the Racing Bulls boss.
Therefore, the second half of 2026 will be decisive for Lawson. As long as he stays ahead of Lindblad, his experience offers an argument for staying, but a drop in performance could put his spot directly at risk given Tsolov’s rise.
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