The strategy promises to have a decisive weight in the Formula 1 Dutch GP. Although Lando Norris starts on pole and McLaren showed strength in qualifying, pace and wear data point to Mercedes and Ferrari being very close, while Pirelli considers a one-stop race as the fastest way in Zandvoort.
Read more F1: Pérez stays out two stops in Dutch GP after change
The main projected option is to start on Medium tires and switch to Hard between laps 27 and 33. Dario Marrafuschi, Pirelli’s motorsport director, explained that the difficulty in overtaking favors this approach. “Putting together all the degradation, performance, and wear data, we believe the one-stop strategy will be the way. In two stops, you might end up facing traffic problems.”
The advantage of this strategy, however, is minimal. Simulations indicate that Medium-Hard would be only about one second faster over the entire race than starting on Softs and then using Hards. In this second scenario, the ideal window appears between laps 26 and 32. Ferrari and Max Verstappen have a new set of Softs available, while McLaren and Mercedes do not have this resource, which opens different possibilities for the front runners.
Pace numbers also put Ferrari in an interesting position. In race simulations, Mercedes appears as the reference, but the Italian team is only 0.07 seconds per lap behind. McLaren is 0.15 seconds back and Red Bull, 0.47 seconds. After them, the gap increases significantly, with Racing Bulls at 1.18 seconds, Audi at 1.27 seconds, and Alpine at 1.49 seconds.
There is also an alternative that gained strength after Charles Leclerc’s Sprint. The Monegasque’s performance with a used set of Softs raised the possibility of a Medium-Soft strategy with only one stop. In this case, the first stint would need to extend to a window between laps 35 and 41. The Softs would have approximately 0.6 seconds advantage in the first laps of the stint compared to cars using Hards, although they would need to complete a long distance until the finish.
Read more F1 today? See the schedule and where to watch the 2026 Dutch GP
For those opting for two stops, the fastest projection is Medium-Hard-Soft. The windows would be between laps 24 and 30 for the first stop and between 46 and 52 for the second. Another possibility is Soft-Medium-Medium, anticipating stops to laps 21 to 27 and then 45 to 51. The total predicted time is not far from the one-stop strategy, provided the driver can take advantage of newer tires to overtake.
The weather adds another variable. The forecast indicates a low chance of rain, but Zandvoort can produce quick showers due to its proximity to the North Sea. The wind is also expected to be relevant, with sustained intensity close to 20 km/h and gusts up to 35 km/h. Sudden rear movements caused by the wind can increase tire temperature and wear, forcing a driver initially committed to one stop to switch to two.
The recent history also advises caution. In the previous edition, Oscar Piastri won using Medium-Hard-Hard, but his two stops occurred during Safety Car periods. For 2026, with different tire possibilities, little time difference between the main strategies, and doubts about overtaking ease, the fight in Zandvoort tends to be defined not only by pure pace but also by choosing the right moment to attack in the pits.
Read more F1: Bortoleto expects «interesting race» and sees possible points at the Dutch GP
