Analysis: The questions that will define the rest of the 2026 F1 season (part 1)

Analysis: The questions that will define the rest of the 2026 F1 season (part 1)

Formula 1 concluded the first part of the 2026 season last Sunday (26) with the Hungarian GP. The race at Hungaroring, which saw McLaren’s first win of the year, left many questions to be answered, but also brought important answers that should set the tone for the second half of the championship.

Read more F1: Lawson makes request to Racing Bulls after good Hungarian GP: «Maintain this performance»

This text will be divided into two parts for better reading, with the continuation available next Wednesday (08/05).

Analysis: The questions that will define the rest of the 2026 F1 season (part 1)
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Has McLaren found the solution?

(L to R): Race winner Lando Norris (GBR) McLaren F1 Team celebrates on the podium with Kyle Moreira (GBR) McLaren F1 Team No. 1 Mechanic.

Lando Norris’s victory broke an almost eight-month drought for the current world champion. Although he said he was neither confident nor completely satisfied with the car, it was only a matter of time before Zak Brown’s team secured its first win in 2026.

This is because the results are not exactly bad. The team, which uses Mercedes engines, has suffered from reliability issues, it’s true. But despite not showing the same performance as the German team’s cars, McLaren has achieved solid results once it stabilized. Excluding races where it faced problems, Norris finished in the top 10 on every occasion. Oscar Piastri hasn’t matched this feat but also hasn’t finished a race outside the top 11 yet.

Analysis: The questions that will define the rest of the 2026 F1 season (part 1)
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For Norris, the win in Hungary can be considered a relief. The British press praised the current world champion and he returned to the spotlight. However, the feeling is that just any driver on the grid won a race, not the current Formula 1 champion. Fifth in the championship, the question remains: if McLaren has found the right path, can Norris still seek some prominence this season? Today, the answer seems to lean towards “no.”

Is Red Bull still a serious team?

Max Verstappen (NLD) Red Bull Racing RB22.

This is a complicated question. Max Verstappen finished the race at Hungaroring in an excellent second place, being acclaimed by the press for having performed “magic” with the car. And “magic” is indeed the right word to describe the RB22.

The car continues to have problems and annoy the four-time world champion, who manages to get good results and mask part of the crisis surrounding the team. In Hungary, however, his complaints gained traction after his teammate, Isack Hadjar, also criticized Red Bull.

While McLaren and Aston Martin bring updates and remain focused on car development, Red Bull seems more concerned with patching the team up hastily after the exodus that began in 2024. New rumors of departures are circulating again in the paddock and, on track, this chaos reflects in inconsistent performances and the discreet stance of Laurent Mekies, the current team principal, who prefers to avoid controversies.

Is Red Bull still a serious team? This answer may only come in the final stretch of the season, when Verstappen decides his future and explains the motivations to stay — or not — on this sinking ship.

Has Mercedes finally taken a side?

Andrea Kimi Antonelli (ITA) Mercedes AMG Formula One Team.

After the Belgian and Hungarian GPs, it became clear that yes. Toto Wolff avoids creating controversies regarding the battle between Kimi Antonelli and George Russell, but right after the race in Spa-Francorchamps, the Austrian jabbed Russell by saying the problem in that race was both the car’s power and the British driver’s driving.

Wolff knows Antonelli can make history and that his name will always be linked to the Italian’s. If the title comes, it will be sold as the result of a bold and much-questioned bet by the executive, who has followed the driver’s career since karting days.

As for Russell, one can only hope his side of the garage starts working in his favor again. Reliability problems are not exclusive to him, as Antonelli also suffered from the situation. So, if he wants to reach the final stretch of the season with a chance to fight for the championship and prove he is not just a promise, Russell needs to find himself on track and leave technical problems for Mercedes to solve, without treating them as mere bad luck. Perhaps the break will do him good.

Read more F1: Vasseur defends Hamilton after series of penalties in the season

Does Ferrari still have chances?

Analysis: The questions that will define the rest of the 2026 F1 season (part 1)

It depends. The math and the team’s performance say yes. But for that, Ferrari will need to define its priorities in the second half of the season.

Lewis Hamilton is the main candidate. He is 50 points behind Antonelli, a distance that is not impossible to overcome in Formula 1. However, decisions made by Ferrari during races can make this mission significantly more complicated. Stopping the seven-time world champion during the virtual safety car, besides being unnecessary, ended up generating a penalty that could have been avoided.

Moreover, Ferrari needs to decide what Charles Leclerc’s role will be at this moment. Without much prominence in the championship fight, the Monegasque could become a trump card for the Italian team in the second half of the season, especially thinking about the Constructors’ Championship. However, Leclerc does not position himself as a driver willing to race for another — and here it is not appropriate to discuss whether he is right or wrong, after all, all 22 drivers compete for an individual championship — while Ferrari still does not show, even subtly, a firm stance.

This lack of direction could be costly in the constructors’ championship. And this is certainly not the scenario Frédéric Vasseur wants to deliver again to Italian fans after such frustrating seasons.

Does Lawson deserve to lose his seat?

Liam Lawson (NZL) Racing Bulls Formula One Team.

Talking about Racing Bulls is complicated, as it definitely does not seem to be a team extremely concerned with the championship. Therefore, talking about Racing Bulls ends up being synonymous with discussing who will be the next driver to occupy a main seat within the Red Bull structure.

Nikola Tsolov, the current Formula 2 leader, is already being talked about as occupying one of the team’s seats precisely in place of Liam Lawson. However, the New Zealander’s performance is not bad: he finished eight of the 11 races contested within the top 10.

Still, good numbers do not always guarantee stability within Racing Bulls, especially when another driver starts to stand out in the junior categories. While Arvid Lindblad seems to have more peace of mind for being a recent bet, the clock is ticking against Lawson, who practically has nowhere else to evolve within the team’s structure.

A seat next to Max Verstappen seems unlikely and, if the four-time champion leaves Red Bull, Lawson will hardly be the first option. The New Zealander’s future depends much more on the team’s decisions and market moves than on his own performance.

Can Audi go further?

Analysis: The questions that will define the rest of the 2026 F1 season (part 1)

Yes. But the new question is: when? The team has been charting the best trajectory among the grid’s newcomers, with Gabriel Bortoleto and Nico Hülkenberg achieving good results, despite some inconsistency at times.

It is a sensitive point, but perhaps 2027 is the ideal moment for Audi to take a risk and invest in a driver more accustomed to fighting for top positions. Carlos Sainz, who is having a turbulent season at Williams, could be that name. Hülkenberg and Bortoleto do a good job developing the project, but when the time comes to take the next step, perhaps someone more aggressive behind the wheel will be necessary. In this scenario, giving up the German might end up being the most logical choice.

Read more F1: Former businessman sues Antonelli and demands million-dollar compensation

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