Kimi Antonelli can win the 2026 Formula 1 season title already at the Mexico City GP, if the championship ends with 23 races. After winning the Spanish GP, the Italian opened an 81-point lead over George Russell.
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In the original scenario, with nine races remaining, there are 225 points available in the races and another eight in the Singapore Sprint, totaling 233. Discounting the current lead, Antonelli would need to score 152 more points to mathematically secure the championship.
With this full calendar, the title could be confirmed at the São Paulo GP, when there would still be three races left, worth a total of 75 points. However, the scenario may change because the Qatar and Abu Dhabi GPs are not expected on the calendar due to uncertainties in the region caused by the war with Iran.
The expectation is that Imola will take the position of the final stage on December 6, reducing the season to 23 races. In this case, 200 points would remain in wins after the Spanish stage, plus eight from the Singapore Sprint, reaching 208.
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With the 81-point lead, Antonelli would then need 127 more to secure the championship. If this scenario holds, he would be in a position to confirm the title at the Mexico City GP, scheduled for November 1.
Antonelli would be 20 years, two months, and eight days old on that date. If he confirms the championship, the Italian will become the youngest champion in F1 history, surpassing Sebastian Vettel’s record by more than three years, which was set at 23 years, four months, and 11 days.
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