Mercedes ended Friday as the benchmark for the Italian GP of Formula 1, but Ferrari showed potential to directly enter the fight for pole in Monza. Simulations point to George Russell in front, with the Italian team just 0.11s behind in qualifying pace.
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The data places McLaren as the third force in a fast lap, 0.22s behind Mercedes, while Red Bull appears 0.44s back. Racing Bulls, Alpine, and Audi follow, with differences of 0.62s, 0.77s, and 0.92s, respectively. For Bradley Lord, Mercedes’ deputy chief, however, Ferrari itself can be considered the favorite due to the performance shown this Friday.
The Maranello team brought an update to the power unit and chassis changes to Monza, and the first signs were positive. Lewis Hamilton had been stating that Ferrari lost approximately four tenths on the straights to rivals, a deficiency that did not completely disappear but seems to have decreased. Sector analysis also shows an interesting possibility: gathering Charles Leclerc’s best mini-sectors, the Monegasque could have recorded a lap about 0.57s faster than his actual time, although different energy usage strategies may distort this comparison.
“That is the dream, the big dream,” Hamilton said when talking about a possible front row. “It will require a lot of work tonight to understand if we made a mistake somewhere. There are many points where we can improve, and being in the right place, at the right time on this track, will help a lot.”
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In race pace, the situation changes. Mercedes remains the benchmark, but McLaren reduces its gap to just 0.08s per lap, emerging as the closest threat in long runs. Ferrari appears 0.32s back, followed by Red Bull at 0.47s. The contrast helps explain Lando Norris’s pessimistic assessment of Friday: despite third in qualifying simulations, the MCL40 seems more competitive for the race. “We are having much more difficulties with pace. We are not in a great situation at the moment,” the Brit acknowledged.
Mercedes’ main strength is on the straights, where data shows an advantage close to two tenths over all rivals. This compensates for small losses to McLaren, Ferrari, and even Haas in slow corners. Russell, therefore, arrives on Saturday as a strong candidate for pole, while Kimi Antonelli, who will start from the back of the grid due to penalties related to engine components, can be used to provide a slipstream for his teammate.
Red Bull appears as the fourth force both in a fast lap and in race pace. Max Verstappen participated only in FP2, after handing the car to Ayumu Iwasa in FP1, and was not satisfied with the behavior of the RB22. Pierre Wache acknowledged problems that need to be fixed before FP3, leaving Mercedes and Ferrari, at least after Friday, as the main benchmarks for defining pole in Monza.
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